Donald Trump Announces He's Running For President In 2024
Announcement Won't Derail DOJ Investigation Of Trump
Tonight, Donald Trump announced that he is running for President of the United States in 2024. The announcement comes one week later than expected, as FPOTUS delayed his announcement in the wake of the Republicans’ disappointing results in the 2022 midterms. Three of FPOTUS’s high-profile Senate (Dr. Oz (PA), Blake Masters (AZ), Don Bolduc (NH), Adam Laxalt (NV)) went down to defeat. Herschel Walker (GA) faces a run-off on December 6. What was expected to be a triumphant reprise of his Trump Tower escalator ride in 2015 was a strangely muted, low-energy affair.
Will Trump’s Announcement Stop The DOJ’s Criminal Investigation?
No. Although the DOJ has an unwritten 60 day rule against taking overt law enforcement action during the run up to an election, that rule does not preclude the DOJ from prosecuting candidates for office before that 60 day window.
The Justice Manual does require approval from the Attorney General or other high-ranking DOJ officials before indicting a politically-sensitive case. There is no doubt that Attorney General Merrick Garland was already involved in the decisions relating to the investigation of FPOTUS, even before he declared he was running for re-election.
Did Things Get Worse For FPOTUS This Week?
Yes. General John Kelly - Trump’s Former Chief Of Staff - publicly stated that FPOTUS demanded that the IRS conduct audits of his perceived enemies, including former FBI Director James Comey and former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. If FPOTUS made this demand while he was President, that is an unambiguous felony. Section 7217 of Title 26 of the United States Code makes it a crime for the “President” to “to request, directly or indirectly, any officer or employee of the Internal Revenue Service to conduct or terminate an audit or other investigation of any particular taxpayer with respect to the tax liability of such taxpayer.”
A President who unlawfully seeks to have an individual audited is subject to up to 5 years in prison. The crime does not require that the IRS actually carry out the audit. The crime is completed with the mere request.
Here, however, there is strong evidence that FPOTUS’s illegal demand was actually carried out. As reported earlier this summer, both Comey and McCabe were subjected to highly unusual IRS audits. The odds of an individual randomly being subjected to this type of audit are similar to being struck by lightning. For both to be the subject of special audit by happenstance is about as likely as a whale falling from the sky and landing in the middle of a mountain range.
The Inspector General of the IRS is already investigating the audits of Comey and McCabe. With General Kelly apparently ready to testify that FPOTUS demanded those audits, this would appear to create additional criminal exposure for FPOTUS. Based on my training and experience as an AUSA who prosecuted tax offenses, I expect that each IRS employee along the chain of command kept detailed notes and records of who ordered them to conduct the audit and the facts that were cited to support that audit demand. I would not be surprised if each of those IRS employees cooperated with the DOJ, with all fingers pointing in the direction of FPOTUS.
The nice thing about prosecuting tax crimes is that the crimes are very clearly delineated. Few jurors have any sympathy for people who cheat on their taxes or wrongfully sic the IRS on an individual to carry out a personal vendetta.
Bottom Line: FPOTUS’s decision to run for re-election does nothing to relieve the criminal exposure that he faces. In fact, that criminal exposure increased in the past week. Will he be indicted? We’ll see.
The two audits are indeed unlikely. A more likely explanation is that someone at a low level in the IRS did it. What controls does the IRS have to restrain political audits *by the civil servants*? Could any of 100 low-level audit managers order one? I'd expect about 5 of 100 to be Republicans, which would be enough. Audits ordered by the President are the most worrisome starting from zero-precautions, but the easiest to prevent with precautions.
Well, it does happen. I remember this whale incident in Oregon back in the day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaFO1xNL-IQ. Oh, have also been struck by lightning, so has my dad! Well... bad things come in 3s? The GOP primaries should be interesting.