If Convicted on Jan. 6 Indictment, How Long Of A Sentence Might Trump Get?
My Guidelines Calculation: At least 70 months
Ken White has done a great job breaking down the substance of the latest Trump indictment at his podcast with Josh Barro: Serious Trouble (https://www.serioustrouble.show/p/trump-is-indicted-for-trying-to-steal).
My only quibble is with Ken's guess on the Guidelines range. I think my Guidelines calculation is right, and higher than Ken's.
Starting point
2c1.1(a)(1): 14 (because Trump was public official)
Plus
Add 4 levels under 2c1.1(b) (because Trump was a “an elected official”) (tunning total: 18)
Plus
Add 3 levels under 3a1.2(a)(1)(A) for victim (Pence (among others)) who was “a government officer” (running total: 21)
Plus
Add 4 levels under 3(b)1.1(a) for organizer/leader of criminal conspiracy involving 5 or more members (running total: 25)
Plus
Add 2 levels under 3b1.3 for abuse of a position of public trust (running total: 27)
Plus (and this is not indicted conduct)
Add 2 levels under 3C1.1 for obstructing the investigation (Cassidy Hutchinson, et al.) (running total: 29)
Result: offense level 27 (or 29)
At criminal history category I, the resulting ranges are:
27: 70-87 months
29: 87-108 months
Either sentence, if imposed, would likely mean Trump would die in jail.
Is there not an anti-double counting provision that applies to prohibit applying both 2C1.1(a)-(b) and 3b1.3? There is one for the similar “government official/color of law” specific offense characteristic in 2H1.1
My question on this has always been that if convicted, and given a sentence of, say, 90 months, would Judge Chutkan send a (then) 78-79 year old man in somewhat poor health to federal lockup? Are we talking about a "country club" prison? Or is he likely to get "home confinement" with an ankle bracelet, and is home confinement an option when your home is either an opulent country club or am 11,000 square foot apartment on Fifth Ave? Would home confinement mean a restriction on visitors? Would it mean a prohibition on use of social media or media appearances? Fox, would of course, send a remote broadcast setup to his home and he'd be on TV several times a week if not.