My Initial Thoughts On The January 6 Committee's Criminal Referral Of FPOTUS

I just did a press Q&A on the criminal referrals by the January 6 Committee to the DOJ that former President Trump be criminally prosecuted for four crimes, including incitement to insurrection.

1-- Jan. 6 committee referred Trump for 4 criminal violations: Obstruction of an Official Proceeding; Conspiracy to Defraud the United States; Conspiracy to Make a False Statement; and “Incite,” “Assist” or “Aid or Comfort” an Insurrection. How do you see such a decision and what is the symbolism of that?

Of the 4 recommendations, the recommendation for prosecution under Section 2383 for inciting “rebellion or insurrection” is the most far-reaching. If indicted, tried and convicted, Former President Trump would be barred for life from holding Federal office, including the Presidency. In addition, he would face a maximum sentence of 10 years in jail. If indicted, tried and convicted on all charges, he would face up to 25 years imprisonment – which would be tantamount to a life sentence for the 76 year old.

The Committee’s criminal referral is neither necessary nor sufficient for the DOJ to bring criminal charges against Former President Trump. It is, however, history-making. There has never been a criminal referral for a sitting or former President. The closest prior example is that, in 1806, then-former Vice President Aaron Burr was indicted and tried for treason. He was acquitted by the jury in 1807.

2- Do you believe the Justice Department will hold Trump accountable? Do you believe in the arrest of Trump? What are Trump's chances to run for White House in 2024?

I believe that Special Counsel Jack Smith is thoroughly investigating three avenues of possible criminal prosecution of former President Trump: (1) the January 6 insurrection and related election tampering (subject of the January 6 Committee’s referral), (2) the wrongful possession of classified papers, which were discovered in the raid on former President Trump’s office and residence at Mar-A-Lago, and (3) the tax audits of his personal enemies, former FBI Director James Comey and Assistant Director Andrew McCabe. Although I do not know Special Counsel Smith personally, people that I know who worked closely with him have stated that Smith is extremely hard-working, thorough and will not shirk from his duty. I would not be surprised if former President Trump is arrested in the next six months.

Former President Trump has already announced that he is running for President in 2024. Since that announcement, however, there has been little visible work by former President Trump on his campaign. He has not held any mass rallies and has rarely left Mar-A-Lago. Recent polling has shown that even Republicans are less likely to support him, with a majority indicating support for another candidate (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis).

3- In general terms, how do you evaluate the work of the Committee?

The January 6 Committee has shifted the understanding of the events of January 6, 2021. Prior to the Committee’s hearings, the phrase “insurrection” was not used by many. In fact, some Republicans publicly stated that the people who entered the Capitol on January 6 were nothing more than “a normal tourist visit”.

Now, the popular understanding in the United States is that January 6 was an organized attempt by a group of MAGA-loyalists to prevent Joe Biden from taking office, re-install Trump as President and (if necessary) kill VP Pence and Congressional leaders. Nearly 1,000 people have been found guilty of criminal offenses, including seditious conspiracy. The open question is whether former President Trump will similarly be tried.

Final Thoughts:

Will FPOTUS be indicted on the charges that the January 6 Committee just referred to the DOJ? I do not know.

Will he be indicted on charges related to the documents found at Mar-A-Lago? Again, I do not know.

The only thing that I know for certain about the future is that it has not happened yet.

Does FPOTUS have extreme criminal exposure? Absolutely.

What will happen? We’ll see.