Open Questions (with answers) After Ghislaine Maxwell's Conviction
The day after the jury found Ghislaine Maxwell guilty on five counts of sex trafficking and related charges, a few questions have repeatedly been posed to me. As a recap, here is my reaction to the guilty verdicts. Below, my answers to the most frequently asked questions.
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be able to reduce her sentence by flipping on high-profile “johns” of the underage girls that Maxwell and Epstein lured into prostitution?
It is highly unlikely that Ghislaine Maxwell will be able to reduce her sentence by becoming a cooperating witness for the federal prosecutors. As a technical matter, it is possible for Maxwell to begin cooperating now and receive credit at sentencing. In fact, she could even cooperate up to 1 year after she is sentenced, and receive a sentence reduction.
In my view, the most immovable obstacle in Ghislaine Maxwell’s way if she were to decide to repent, admit guilt and provide testimony against others is her deposition testimony in the civil suit brought by Virginia Giuffre Roberts. In that deposition, she vehemently denied (1) any involvement in sex trafficking, (2) any knowledge that Epstein had sex with women other than her (apart from one group encounter), or (3) any knowledge that underage girls entered Epstein’s Palm Beach mansion, other than children of her friends. Her testimony was so patently false that she was indicted on two counts of perjury for her testimony.
If Maxwell were to try to flip at this point, prosecutors would likely say that she had destroyed any credibility she might have had if she had cooperated earlier. The cross-examination of Maxwell would almost write itself. She denied that there was any sex trafficking for years, let alone that [celebrity defendant X] was involved and only changed her story after she was convicted herself and facing more than 20 years in prison.
UNLESS . . .
If Maxwell has objective “smoking gun” evidence of others engaging in sex with underage girls (or boys), such as photos or videos, then her testimony would be irrelevant. It has long been rumored that Epstein had rigged his homes with cameras to capture images of the rich and famous en flagrante-delicto so as to be able to blackmail them into paying vast amount for his financial “services.” No such images were retrieved by the FBI when they seized nearly 20,000 images from Epstein’s mansion in 2019. If Maxwell has (or has access to) such pictures or videos (to be clear, I’m talking about things far beyond the photo of Prince Andrew with his arm around Virginia Giuffre), she might be able to cut a deal — if the new defendant(s) were important enough.
When will Ghislaine Maxwell be sentenced?
We do not know when Ghislaine Maxwell will be sentenced, but it will not be until after the two remaining perjury counts against her are resolved — either by plea, trial or dismissal. If there is to be a trial on the perjury counts, it likely would be this coming spring or early summer. The sentencing hearing will be scheduled for roughly 3 months after those counts are resolved. (In yesterday’s post, I mistakenly wrote that she would likely be sentenced in three months. I had forgotten about the perjury counts).
What difference do the two perjury counts make?
A conviction on the two perjury counts would likely not move the needle on the sentencing range (235 - 293 months, by my estimation) that Maxwell faces. The one major collateral consequence of a trial on the perjury counts would be to extend the time that Maxwell is incarcerated at the MDC. As I previously wrote, the MDC is a hellish place. After she is sentenced, she will be assigned to a Federal Correctional Institute for women, which will almost certainly be less awful than MDC.
Where will Ghislaine Maxwell serve her sentence?
My best guess is that Maxwell will be assigned to serve at the Low Security prison at Danbury, CT (FCI Danbury). Because Maxwell will be treated as a “sex offender", she will not be eligible to serve at a minimum security prison or prison camp. FCI Danbury was the basis for the TV show “Orange Is The New Black” — that is where the author served her time. As anyone who read the book or watched the show knows, FCI Danbury is no Club Fed. It is a real, hardcore prison, filled with real, hardcore criminals.
What are Ghislaine Maxwell’s chances on appeal?
Not good. Judge Nathan made most of the close calls on evidentiary issues in favor of the defense. I did not see any obvious issues for appeal.
Maxwell likely will argue to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals that her prosecution should have been barred by the Non-Prosecution Agreement that Jeffrey Epstein entered into with the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida in 2007. Under that Agreement, the “the United States also agrees that it will not institute any criminal charges against any potential co-conspirators of Epstein, including but not limited to Sarah Kellen, Adriana Ross, Lesley Groff, or Nadia Marcinkova.” Maxwell argued, unsuccessfully, before Judge Nathan that she was a “potential co-conspirator of Epstein” whose prosecution was barred.
Maxwell’s arguments failed because the Second Circuit has held (in line with all other circuit courts of appeal) that, unless there is explicit language in a plea agreement that binds the United States nationally, a plea agreement with “the United States” in one federal district only applies in that district and does not provide any protection from prosecution by the United States in the other 92 federal districts in the country. It seems unlikely that the Second Circuit would reverse itself in this high profile case.
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What will happen next? We’ll see.