Amazingly, there is still an outside chance that the Democrats will get to exactly 218 seats in the House. https://www.nytimes.com/.../results-house-seats-elections...
Let me explain:
According to the New York Times, 196 seats have been called for the Dems, 211 have been called for the GOP. There are 28 seats still undecided. To get to 218, the Dems must win 22 of the 28 seats.
Easy wins (9):
Alaska (when ranked choice is done, Peltola will win easily) - Specifically, Peltola has 47%, Palin has 26% and Begich has 24% and Bye (Libertarian) has 1.7%. Under ranked choice, Bye will be eliminated, and his voters will be allocated to their second choice (if they indicated one). Bye’s voters likely will go to Palin. Unless Begich passes Palin when Bye is eliminated, Begich would be the next candidate eliminated. Begich was the “moderate” Republican, and a significant portion of his voters likely voted Peltola ahead of Palin, or had no second choice. Palin and Begich attached each other more than they addressed Peltola, during the summer special election. Palin would have to capture virtually all of Begich’s voters to pass Peltola.1
Arizona 4 (Stanton leads by 14%) (ABC News has already called for Stanton)
California 9 (Harder leads by 13%)
California 35 (Torres leads by 12%)
California 6 (Bera leads by 12%)
California 21 (Costa leads by 9%)
California 26 (Brownley leads by 8%)
California 38 (Sanchez leads by 8%) (ABC News has already called for Sanchez)
Maine 2 (when ranked choice is done, Golden will win easily) - Specifically, Gold has 48%, Poliquin has 45% and Bond has 7%. Under ranked choice, Bond will be eliminated, and her voters will be allocated to their second choice (if they indicated one). Bond was the Independent, who ran to the left of Golden. I cannot imagine a scenario where any significant portion of Bond’s voters would have ranked Poliquin ahead of Golden. Poliquin would have to virtually sweep the Bond voters to pass Golden.
Dems still need 13 more wins (out of 19 remaining races)
Should be wins (5):
Nevada 1 (Titus leads by 4% with 92% reported) (ABC News has already called for Titus)
California 49 (Levin leads by 3%, remaining precincts are favorable)
Nevada 4 (Horsford leads by 3% with 94% reported) (ABC News has already called for Horsford)
Oregon 6 (Salinas leads by 1.7% with more votes left in Dem strongholds (Washington & Clackamas Counties))
Colorado 8 (Caraveo leads by ~2k votes, with all precincts reported) (ABC News has already called for Caraveo)
Dems still need 8 more wins (out of 13 remaining races)
Lean Dem (4):
Washington 3 (Gluesenkamp Perez leads by 2% with 70% reported)
Nevada 3 (Lee leads by 2% with 93% reported)
California 47 (Porter leads by 2% with mail-in ballots left to count)
Arizona 1 (Hodge leads by 1.6% with mail-in ballots left to count) [11/14 UPDATE: Hodge now trails Schweikert by 894 votes]
Dems still need 4 more wins (out of 9 remaining races)
THE FINAL FOUR - COMEBACKS NEEDED
California 13 (Gray trails by ~300 votes, with many more votes expected from Dem strongholds (Merced, Stanislaus & San Joaquin Counties))
Arizona 6 (Engle trails by 2% with virtually all remaining vote coming from Democrat stronghold (Pima County))
California 41 (Rollins trails by 1% with only mail in ballots left to count)
Oregon 5 (McLeod-Skinner trails by 2.4% with most remaining vote coming from Democratic strongholds (Clackamas and Multnomah Counties)) [11/14 UPDATE: This race has been called for the Republican. The Democrats can only get to 218 by flipping some other seat where they trail].
Put it all together and you get to exactly 218 Democratic seats.2
I'd put the odds of a Democratic House at around 25%. That is the likelihood of flipping a coin twice and having it come up HEADS both times. [11/14 UPDATE: With the bad news out of Oregon 5 (lost) and Arizona 1 (losing), I now put the odds of the Democrats getting to 218 at around 5% (and that might be too optimistic)]
Another way to think about it is that the Democrats chances of holding the House (by 1 vote) are about the same as when a team is losing by 1 run in the bottom of the ninth inning, with two outs and the bases loaded.
I would keep watching to see how it turns out (in baseball or this election).
The only thing that I know for certain about the future is that it has not happened yet.
If Begich had finished ahead of Palin (which could theoretically still happen when mail in ballots are counted and Bye is eliminated), he would have a real chance to pass Peltola, as virtually none of Palin’s hard right voters would have put Peltola as their second choice. The question would be whether these Palin voters put in any second choice.