Wild Possibility for the Day: Speaker of the House Donald Trump
If the GOP Narrowly Takes The House, FPOTUS Might Seek The Title To Ward Off Indictment
In the last 48 hours, the election results are pointing towards the GOP narrowly getting across the 218-seat finish line to take the House. My earlier column that pointed out there was a narrow path for the Dems to get to exactly 218 seats was premised on the Democrats taking (among other seats) Oregon 5, which has now been called for Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. As the votes stand today, I think that the Democrats have only about a 5% chance of retaining the House.
The Republicans narrowly taking the House of Representatives does not mean that Kevin McCarthy (the current Minority Leader) necessarily will become the next Speaker. If the Republicans end up with 220 seats (which is my best guess today), any three GOP House members could block him from becoming Speaker. The New York Times describes Rep. McCarthy as currently “scrounging” for the 218 votes necessary to become Speaker.
IF NOT McCARTHY, THEN WHO?
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) has publicly speculated that some members of the Republican “Freedom Caucus”, such as Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) might vote for FPOTUS in order to avoid giving McCarthy enough votes to become Speaker on the first ballot. The theory is that if McCarthy cannot get to 218, he will step aside on a second ballot — allowing a more conservative Speaker to emerge.
ISN’T BEING A MEMBER OF THE HOUSE A REQUIREMENT TO BE SPEAKER?
No. “[T]here is no requirement that the Speaker be a Member of the House.” In practice, every Speaker has been an elected member of the House.
WHY WOULD FPOTUS WANT TO BE SPEAKER?
I do not think that FPOTUS would want to be Speaker in order to advance any particular policy agenda. I do not think he has a policy agenda. In fact, I doubt that he has a working understanding of the job responsibilities of the Speaker.
I think that Trump’s sole motivation in seeking to become Speaker would be to reduce the likelihood that he would be tried and convicted by the DOJ. Here are things that I believe, on the basis of pattern recognition and listening to things that FPOTUS has said:
He fears that he will be indicted by the DOJ. To hear him say it, he believes that the DOJ is “dominated” by “left-wing” activists, who would indict him even though he is the “most innocent” person in history. Nonetheless, he fears indictment.
He fears that if the DOJ indicts him, it will be in the District of Columbia, not Florida.
He fears that if he is tried in front of a “left wing” jury in DC, he will be convicted.
He believes that the only reason that the DOJ has not indicted him to date is the DOJ policy against bringing an indictment in the 60 days immediately preceding a national election, if that indictment would be likely to have an impact on the election. Based on things he has publicly said, I believe that he has absorbed this lesson from his attorneys. The DOJ, in fact, has an unwritten 60 Day Rule.
He believes that declaring his run for the Presidency in 2024 would decrease the likelihood that the DOJ would indict him, for the same reasons that animate the 60 Day Rule — a desire not to have the criminal process interfere with the political process.
I suspect that if House members like Matt Gaetz (who previously hyped the idea of Speaker Trump) try to get him to throw his hat in the ring for Speaker, they will whisper to him that being Speaker would make it less likely that the DOJ would be willing to indict him.1
WHY WOULD THE HOUSE GOP GO ALONG WITH SPEAKER TRUMP?
If the House GOP goes along with Speaker Trump, it will be because there is no one left in the GOP Caucus with the intestinal fortitude to stand up publicly against FPOTUS. The only two House Republicans who joined the January 6 Committee (Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Liz Cheney (R-WY) were each kicked out of the GOP caucus and will not be in the next Congress. At least six of the other 8 Republican House Members who voted (with Kinzinger and Cheney) to impeach FPOTUS after January 6 likewise will not be returning to Congress. At most, two will remain in the next Congress — and Cong. Valadao (R-CA) still might lose.
The House GOP might prefer Speaker Trump (with someone else actually doing the job of being Speaker) over the possibility of starting the Congress in January 2023 without having a Speaker in place.2 It is not clear that anyone in the House Caucus could get 218 votes (if the GOP only gets 220 seats). If the Freedom Caucus puts forward a candidate, there might be 3 - 5 more "moderate” Republicans who (fearing they would lose in the next election) would not vote in favor. For example, the four seats that the GOP just flipped in New York will be filled with Representatives who would fear being wiped out in 2024, if we get Speaker Jim Jordan. If Kevin McCarthy cannot get the votes, it is hard to imagine another establishment Republican getting to the magic number.
HASN’T THE PRESS BEEN FILLED WITH ARTICLES THAT THE HOUSE GOP HAS TURNED AGAINST TRUMP?
Yes, there are plenty of articles about members of the House GOP “turning against Trump.” When you read those articles beyond the headline, however, you do not find on-the-record quotes from House GOP Members blasting FPOTUS. Those “blasts” all come “on background” or “without attribution” or from former Senators or Congressmen, like Pat Toomey (R-PA) or Peter King (R-NY). On the record, members of the GOP Caucus either support FPOTUS or hedge their comments.
DOESN’T FPOTUS KNOW THAT THE HOUSE GOP PRIVATELY WANTS HIM TO GO AWAY?
Yes, he knows. He is acutely aware of what is going on. He also knows that the people who are against him do not have the courage of their convictions. In the past, this has been precisely the time he has “doubled down”. He will play a game of chicken, betting on his opponents to swerve.
BUT HASN’T TRUMP PUBLICLY BACKED McCARTHY FOR SPEAKER?
Yes, he has. If anyone believes that FPOTUS would allow prior statements of support for McCarthy as Speaker to bind him in the future, I have a 30,000 square foot apartment in Trump Tower (that is really 10,000 square feet) to sell you.
HOW LIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT TRUMP WOULD END UP AS SPEAKER?
I think it is highly unlikely, but not impossible. If you had asked me in 2015, if Trump would even run for President, I would have told you that it was “never” going to happen. Since then, I have learned that “never” is a very long time.
I have no idea whether the DOJ would, in fact, consider service as Speaker to be a factor against indicting FPOTUS. My point is that someone could easily convince him that the DOJ would. Of course, someone convinced him that demanding that Denmark sell Greenland to the United States (or trade Greenland for Puerto Rico) was a good idea, too.
For example, at the beginning of the 34th Congress in 1855, 133 ballots over a period of two months were necessary to elect Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts as Speaker.
Interesting.
Seems like if they appointed him speaker, there'd be no so-called immunity, and the admin could do as many exec orders as they like. Likely they'd go to court, but not all the justices are corrupt. Meanwhile, 100 vacancies are out there, and blue slip (blackballing) isn't actually prescribed in the constitution.